Webb26 mars 2024 · benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Webb22 apr. 2024 · PHILIP TETLOCK: We want a lot of things from our forecasters, and accuracy is often not the first thing. I think that we look to forecasters for ideological …
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Webb31 maj 2024 · Cummings is also known to be a fan of Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock, a book about people who predict future events more reliably than most. Some superforecasters have been praised for their ... WebbIf you're interested in my forecasting tournament work, please see my new book: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (Crown … cindy hufnagel
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The co-leaders of the GJP include Philip Tetlock, Barbara Mellers and Don Moore. The website lists a total of about 30 team members, including the co-leaders as well as David Budescu, Lyle Ungar, Jonathan Baron, and prediction-markets entrepreneur Emile Servan-Schreiber. The advisory board included Daniel Kahneman, Robert Jervis, J. Scott Armstrong, Michael Mauboussin, Carl Spetzler and Justin Wolfers. The study employed several thousand people as volunteer forecasters. Using per… Webb7 feb. 2024 · In 2010, Philip Tetlock (one of the signatories on the pro-prediction market letter) did some pretty basic forecasting work, not even prediction market level, ... Prediction markets are absolutely on top of questions about whether Donald Trump will win various elections. This is a solved problem. Webb3 dec. 2024 · Dec. 3, 2024. Every Tuesday and Friday, Ezra Klein invites you into a conversation about something that matters, like today’s episode, guest hosted by Julia Galef and featuring Philip Tetlock ... cindy hudec